Severe Storms and Large Hail Forecast for South-East Queensland as Bushfires Burn
Queensland's first severe thunderstorms of the wet season are forecast for Tuesday, with large hail possible in Brisbane and the Gold Coast while two bushfires burn.
Queensland's south-east is bracing for its first severe storms of the wet season on Tuesday, and people are searching for when and where they will hit. The Bureau of Meteorology says the risk includes large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. The rain is welcome after a very dry spell, but it is unlikely to end the bushfire threat in the region.
When and where the storms are expected
Storms are forecast to develop over the Darling Downs, bringing isolated heavy rain and damaging winds. According to the bureau, large hail is possible at Brisbane and the Gold Coast in the early afternoon. The risk then moves north to the Sunshine Coast and the Wide Bay and Burnett region in the evening.
Other areas likely to be hit include parts of the Burnett and the area west towards Toowoomba. Hailstones larger than two centimetres are possible.
Patchy, light rain was possible on Monday across inland Queensland, including the Darling Downs and into the south-east, before conditions shift on Tuesday afternoon.
How severe will it be?
Forecasters say this will not be a widespread event. "These severe thunderstorms will be fairly isolated, so we're not looking at a particularly widespread or high-end type of day," the bureau's Shane Kennedy said.
Senior meteorologist Angus Hines said not everyone will see a storm. "But the areas that do, it's certainly going to … bring some pretty disruptive weather," he said.
Rainfall is expected to be modest on average, at 5-15mm, with 20-50mm in some areas. Hines said some very dry places will get a good soak, but for some it might be "too much too fast", while others may not get as much as they want.
The activity could last several days. One report says storms could move as far north as Townsville by Thursday. Another says showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, but that Tuesday is the most "dynamic" day.
Bushfire context
The storms arrive after an extremely dry September. One report says Queensland recorded just 1.4mm of rain for the whole month. Another describes parts of southern and central Queensland, including the south-east, as unusually dry.
About 100 fire personnel have been fighting two out-of-control blazes near Murphy's Creek, about 120 kilometres west of Brisbane, since last week. The fires have burned a combined 1600 hectares and are expected to merge. Crews have serious concerns for four properties over the next 24 hours.
Rain could help firefighters, but the storms carry risks. Queensland Rural Fire Service acting deputy chief officer Joel Gordon warned that storms with little rain and plenty of lightning could cause dry lightning strikes. High winds could also worsen fire conditions.
The wider outlook
Australia and the Pacific are in a strong El Nino pattern, the bureau said. Hines noted that this does not always mean drought. Modelling shows an elevated chance of above-average rainfall across much of Queensland over the next three months. El Nino does tend to bring extra heat, so the coming months could be "hot and muggy and sticky" rather than hot and dry.
Elsewhere, parts of Victoria and South Australia can expect isolated showers as a cold front passes. Tasmania will see widespread showers, with a risk of small hail and snow in some parts. Western Australia will be mostly dry apart from some showers and storms in the Gascoyne.
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What it means for you
If you are in the south-east on Tuesday, watch for bureau warnings through the afternoon and evening, when hail and damaging winds are most likely. Not every suburb will be hit, but those that are could see sudden, heavy downpours. Near the Lockyer Valley, follow Queensland Fire Department updates, because storms could either ease or worsen the fires.
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